On the 23rd June 2025, the price of oil leapt to $77 a barrel having started the month at just $62, fuelled by the Israel-Iran conflict. Following a ceasefire declaration on the 24th June, the price dropped back sharply to $68 a barrel and remains at this level as of the morning of 27th June.
However, the trading cost of oil remains lower than June 2024 when the cost of a barrel of Brent crude stood at $85 a barrel.
Another important factor in wholesale pricing is the strength of the pound against the US dollar. As oil is traded in dollars, a strong sterling makes oil cheaper to buy. As of 27th June 2025, £1 buys around $1.37, which is considerably better than the $1.26 it bought at the end of June 2024.
What does this mean for prices at the pumps?
Price changes at the pumps tend to lag around 2-3 weeks behind the wholesale market. As of 27th June 2025, the price of a litre of unleaded (E10) was 134.14ppl, with diesel at 141.22, both of which have trended upwards as we close out June.
Given the geopolitical impacts of the early summer, in July we anticipate a small rise of around 1-2 pence per litre in the average cost of fuel at the pumps before stabilising or even falling back, however this is subject to on-going instability in the Middle East. Our easy read fuel calculator gives an estimate of what a 2p per litre increase translates to for a standard 55ltr car being filled from empty.
Impact on individual vehicle (2ppl increase for average 55ltr car)
| Cost to fill car up | Amount | Fuel price changes |
| Fuel tank capacity (Avg 55ltr car) | 55 | 55 |
| Average petrol cost (ppl) | £1.3414 | £1.3614 |
| Cost to fully fill up from empty | £73.78 | £74.88 |
Nicholas Lyes (IAM RoadSmart Policy and Standards Director)
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